McCain Wins South Carolina (And Conservatives Still Don't Have a Candidate)

The voters in today's GOP Primary in South Carolina could be divided up into four many demographic groups: there were Moderates, there were Conservatives, there were Evangelical Christians, and there were Retirees. About a quarter of the voters were moderates, according to exit poll data, and John McCain garnered two-thirds of their votes.

That means that of the 33% of primary voters who went for McCain, about half called themselves moderates. Older voters, according to the Associated Press, also tended to cast their ballots for McCain.

But the majority of South Carolina's GOP voters described themselves today as either Conservatives or Evangelical Christians (most of whom qualify as Conservatives, as well).

So why did the most moderate of the GOP's candidates win South Carolina? Simple: Conservatives still don't have a favorite son. They split their vote four (or maybe five) ways and diluted their power as a voting block.

You might say that Conservatives are more concerned today about their differences these days than about their similarities. Evangelical Christians are looking for a candidate with a faith based message and they think they've found on in Mike Huckabee. He carried the Evangelical vote for the most part. But the Fiscal Conservatives who are more concerned with financial policy than religion don't much like Huckabee because they question his record on taxation and spending during his tenure as governor of Arkansas. Those voters split their ballots between Romney and Thompson. And while Evangelical voters might be willing to accept Thompson as a candidate, they have a problem with Romney's Mormon religion. Romney has failed in his bid to attract the support of Evangelical voters.

Perhaps the most important factor in the South Carolina GOP Primary was McCain's ability to draw some voters from every camp. He gained a degree of acceptance among both Evangelicals and Fiscal Conservatives.

It is worth noting that Mike Huckabee is the darling of the misnamed "Fair Tax" crowd at the moment. The only other candidate that supports that proposal in Ron Paul. And if Ron Paul's people had voted for Huckabee, their four percent of the vote would have made Huckabee the winner. That's assuming a lot, I know. If bullfrogs had wings...

Ron Paul finished fifth in the race. And Giuliani came in a distant seventh.

After South Carolina: Fred Thompson Stays In

Fred Thompson said he needed to finish at least second in today's South Carolina GOP Primary to say viable. He finished third, with only about half the votes of second place Mike Huckabee. In the Nevada Caucus today Thompson finished fifth, about 100 votes behind Huckabee.

Just the same, Thompson say, well gosh, he reckons he'll say around a while longer... The question is, why? And how long will that while be?

Thompson entered the race late with high expectations that he would be met by adoring crowds who would sweep him to victory. The crowds never showed up, proving that politics is at least as much about work as it is about personality. He lags nationally behind Romney, McCain, Huckabee, and Giuliani - all of whom were out shaking hands and asking for votes long before Thompson tossed his hat into the ring.

In South Carolina Thompson was something of a spoiler, dividing Conservatives and Evangelical Christians today who might otherwise have mostly voted for Huckabee or Romney. John McCain, who won in South Carolina, would be glad to see Thompson keep doing that at least through the February 5th Super Tuesday ballots.

If Thompson hopes to eventually play the role of either spoiler or kingmaker, it is unclear who would get his support at the Republican National Convention. A tone of bitterness is developing between the Thompson and Huckabee camps as the two groups compete for the title of "Most Strongly Against Abortion." And Thompson disagrees with McCain on important issues like immigration.

For now he's making speeches that could be taken to mean he's staying in, or that he's putting his house in order before he drops out.

Perhaps Thompson would make Romney a good vice presidential candidate to increase the Boston Mormon's appeal in the south during the general election. But there are a lot of delegates left to county before it comes to that.

In the mean time, Thompson is beginning to smell like a Thanksgiving turkey that's been left in the oven too long...

Georgetown: The Shelling and Lighthouse Cruise

On Tuesday, June 19, Cheryl and I drove to historic Georgetown, SC - about 35 miles from our hotel in Myrtle Beach. We had a 1pm reservation for the Carolina Rover's Shelling and Lighthouse Cruise.

Georgetown is a beautiful old historic town. The streets are lined with huge oak trees. The downtown area includes a small waterfront where the boat we were taking docks.

The "shelling and lighthouse tour" that the Carolina Rover offers was pleasant - but it was also badly named. We spent about two and a half hours on a pontoon boat listening to an individual give us narration as we motored across Winyah Bay. Tidbits included:

• The water in the bay is brown because plant life in the bay produces natural tannins similar to those in tea. Pirates used to come and soak new white sails in the water in Winayh Bay to turn them brown.
  

• The brown pelicans that populate the bay dive into the water for their food. They live to be 12 or 13 years old and then begin to develop cataracts on their eyes from all the diving. The end result is that they can't see to catch food anymore and they die.
  

• A Union ship, the USS Harvest Moon, was sunk in the bay and its smoke stack is visible above the water.
  

• In the 1800's a young girl whose father ran the lighthouse drowned in the bay in a storm. Her ghost sometimes warns sailors of impending storms...

If you go on the "shelling and lighthouse tour" to tour the lighthouse you'll be disappointed. The lighthouse is an active navigational beacon, so Homeland Security won't let tourists walk through it anymore. The picture at the beginning of this blog was as close as we got.

If you go on the "shelling and lighthouse tour" to gather shells you'll be disappointed. The North Island has lots of shells. But the Carolina Rover takes groups of 50 people there three times a day to spend half an hour picking over the shells. What good shells there are become the property of the first few kids off the boat. Extensive beach combing is limited by the fact that you have 15 minutes to walk down the beach before you have to start back toward the boat. Two or three people in our group found something other than run-of-the-mill cockle shells. We did better ourselves on Pawleys Island.

The trip was relaxing, educational, and $56 (for the two of us)...

Pawleys Island

Note: Clicking on the pictures will take you to a larger photo gallery of Pawleys Islands...

On Monday, June 18, knowing that low tide (the best time for shelling on a beach) would be out before noon, we got up and headed south from our hotel in Myrtle Beach toward Pawleys Island - about 20 miles south of Myrtle Beach.

Pawleys Island is a town that includes a barrier island. The island, for which the town is named, claims to have been America's first resort. The families of South Carolina rice farmers came here to vacation during the 1700's. Twelve homes on the island date to the middle of the 19th Century or earlier.

We didn't look at homes on the island. On Monday we did spend about an hour at the beach on the south end of the island. Pawley Island has a number of beach accesses where five or six cars can park and you can walk 30 yards or so to the beach. The south end has a parking place for 30 or so cars. we parked there on Monday. We weren't sure what we'd find and hadn't brought our swimsuits.

We came back to Pawleys Island on Thursday, June 21. It was the first full day of summer and, wouldn't you know it, the town had chosen that time to close the biggest parking lot on the island and renovate it. Go figure. We parked at an access spot about half a mile away and walked down the beach to the south end. It was a pleasant walk. We found a few nice shells.

In all we spent about three hours on the beach on Thursday - the longest stretch we spent in the sun. Both of us got a little burned. We'll probably be back to Pawleys Island, though....